PHANTOM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
PHANTOM · ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
🎯 PHANTOM's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using PHANTOM's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 2
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 3
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 4
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 5
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 6
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 7
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by PHANTOM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.214 | 0.486 | 0.063 | 0.300 | 3-0 PICK |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.212 | 0.462 | 0.062 | 0.326 | ADVANCE |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.181 | 0.453 | 0.077 | 0.366 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.146 | 0.416 | 0.103 | 0.438 | ADVANCE |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.143 | 0.416 | 0.105 | 0.441 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.135 | 0.398 | 0.105 | 0.467 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.125 | 0.422 | 0.116 | 0.453 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.118 | 0.380 | 0.131 | 0.502 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.109 | 0.378 | 0.126 | 0.513 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.109 | 0.342 | 0.136 | 0.549 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.097 | 0.328 | 0.142 | 0.576 | — |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.096 | 0.318 | 0.148 | 0.586 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.085 | 0.313 | 0.156 | 0.601 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.079 | 0.283 | 0.173 | 0.639 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.077 | 0.322 | 0.178 | 0.601 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.076 | 0.283 | 0.180 | 0.641 | 0-3 PICK |
How PHANTOM predicts
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.