FORM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
FORM · Win rate last 10 matches
🎯 FORM's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using FORM's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
B8
✓ 0-3
HLTV #20
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 2
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 5
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 6
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 7
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by FORM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.294 | 0.506 | 0.032 | 0.200 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.202 | 0.458 | 0.057 | 0.339 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.201 | 0.465 | 0.052 | 0.335 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.174 | 0.473 | 0.069 | 0.353 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.158 | 0.433 | 0.071 | 0.409 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.158 | 0.416 | 0.074 | 0.426 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.149 | 0.417 | 0.086 | 0.434 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.126 | 0.430 | 0.083 | 0.445 | ADVANCE |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.114 | 0.400 | 0.113 | 0.486 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.105 | 0.413 | 0.101 | 0.482 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.087 | 0.347 | 0.117 | 0.566 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.063 | 0.320 | 0.186 | 0.617 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.050 | 0.275 | 0.198 | 0.675 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.043 | 0.231 | 0.253 | 0.726 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.039 | 0.212 | 0.253 | 0.749 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.037 | 0.204 | 0.256 | 0.759 | 0-3 PICK |
How FORM predicts
Win rate last 10 matches
For the Pickem Challenge, FORM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by FORM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, FORM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by FORM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.