TIER3ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
TIER3 · Top-teams ELO v3
🎯 TIER3ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER3ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
9z
3-2
HLTV #17
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 2
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 3
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 6
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 7
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIER3ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.159 | 0.422 | 0.096 | 0.420 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.136 | 0.389 | 0.120 | 0.476 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.132 | 0.382 | 0.120 | 0.486 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.130 | 0.379 | 0.117 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.129 | 0.399 | 0.116 | 0.471 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.129 | 0.375 | 0.120 | 0.496 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.128 | 0.386 | 0.121 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.128 | 0.370 | 0.125 | 0.502 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.123 | 0.377 | 0.123 | 0.500 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.119 | 0.372 | 0.130 | 0.509 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.117 | 0.365 | 0.135 | 0.517 | — |
|
9z
#17
|
0.117 | 0.349 | 0.139 | 0.534 | 0-3 PICK |
FUT
#13
|
0.115 | 0.354 | 0.132 | 0.531 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.114 | 0.356 | 0.136 | 0.530 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.113 | 0.369 | 0.136 | 0.518 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.110 | 0.356 | 0.137 | 0.534 | — |
How TIER3ELO predicts
Top-teams ELO v3
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER3ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER3ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER3ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER3ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.