ELOHQ — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
ELOHQ · High-confidence ELO
🎯 ELOHQ's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOHQ's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 2
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 3
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 6
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 7
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOHQ's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.191 | 0.460 | 0.071 | 0.349 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.149 | 0.407 | 0.103 | 0.444 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.141 | 0.399 | 0.109 | 0.461 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.140 | 0.370 | 0.113 | 0.490 | — |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.135 | 0.380 | 0.113 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.134 | 0.394 | 0.115 | 0.472 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.132 | 0.399 | 0.115 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.127 | 0.400 | 0.113 | 0.474 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.121 | 0.363 | 0.136 | 0.516 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.112 | 0.372 | 0.126 | 0.516 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.111 | 0.351 | 0.135 | 0.538 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.111 | 0.359 | 0.136 | 0.530 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.108 | 0.342 | 0.154 | 0.551 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.100 | 0.354 | 0.147 | 0.547 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.097 | 0.334 | 0.151 | 0.570 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.093 | 0.317 | 0.163 | 0.590 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELOHQ predicts
High-confidence ELO
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.