WR10PURE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
WR10P · Pure win rate vs top-10
🎯 WR10PURE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using WR10PURE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
G2
3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 3
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 4
BetBoom
✓ 3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ 5
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 6
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
⚡ 7
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by WR10PURE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.404 | 0.472 | 0.015 | 0.124 | 3-0 PICK |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.212 | 0.503 | 0.046 | 0.285 | ADVANCE |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.186 | 0.466 | 0.068 | 0.349 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.184 | 0.482 | 0.063 | 0.335 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.150 | 0.424 | 0.078 | 0.426 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.140 | 0.467 | 0.079 | 0.393 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.120 | 0.431 | 0.085 | 0.449 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.113 | 0.389 | 0.107 | 0.498 | ADVANCE |
Monte
#23
|
0.086 | 0.335 | 0.128 | 0.580 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.078 | 0.357 | 0.139 | 0.565 | — |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.071 | 0.325 | 0.144 | 0.605 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.066 | 0.317 | 0.166 | 0.617 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.060 | 0.284 | 0.205 | 0.657 | — |
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.058 | 0.320 | 0.164 | 0.622 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.053 | 0.252 | 0.193 | 0.695 | — |
|
G2
#12
|
0.022 | 0.177 | 0.320 | 0.801 | 0-3 PICK |
How WR10PURE predicts
Pure win rate vs top-10
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10PURE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10PURE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10PURE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10PURE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.