MIND — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
MIND · Psychology + tilt + H2H
🎯 MIND's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using MIND's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
💀 0-3
B8
✓ 0-3
HLTV #20
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 2
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 5
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 6
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 7
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by MIND's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.211 | 0.471 | 0.065 | 0.319 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.196 | 0.453 | 0.067 | 0.351 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.169 | 0.420 | 0.078 | 0.410 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.160 | 0.431 | 0.089 | 0.409 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.149 | 0.413 | 0.100 | 0.439 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.133 | 0.377 | 0.105 | 0.490 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.124 | 0.393 | 0.116 | 0.483 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.122 | 0.368 | 0.115 | 0.511 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.120 | 0.367 | 0.124 | 0.513 | — |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.111 | 0.394 | 0.129 | 0.495 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.108 | 0.359 | 0.134 | 0.533 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.107 | 0.367 | 0.135 | 0.526 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.090 | 0.338 | 0.154 | 0.572 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.079 | 0.302 | 0.178 | 0.620 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.071 | 0.304 | 0.186 | 0.625 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.052 | 0.244 | 0.227 | 0.704 | 0-3 PICK |
How MIND predicts
Psychology + tilt + H2H
For the Pickem Challenge, MIND ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MIND's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, MIND ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MIND's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.