TRIBUNAL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
TRIBUNAL · OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
🎯 TRIBUNAL's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TRIBUNAL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 2
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 3
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 4
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 5
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 6
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 7
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TRIBUNAL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.279 | 0.523 | 0.031 | 0.198 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.262 | 0.514 | 0.035 | 0.224 | ADVANCE |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.238 | 0.522 | 0.043 | 0.241 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.226 | 0.476 | 0.039 | 0.298 | ADVANCE |
Falcons
#4
|
0.129 | 0.387 | 0.094 | 0.484 | — |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.117 | 0.455 | 0.094 | 0.428 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.117 | 0.391 | 0.082 | 0.493 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.107 | 0.408 | 0.089 | 0.486 | ADVANCE |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.096 | 0.356 | 0.134 | 0.548 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.095 | 0.340 | 0.137 | 0.565 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.089 | 0.320 | 0.138 | 0.592 | — |
|
G2
#12
|
0.081 | 0.388 | 0.124 | 0.531 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.062 | 0.279 | 0.185 | 0.659 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.049 | 0.310 | 0.179 | 0.641 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.035 | 0.192 | 0.252 | 0.773 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.019 | 0.141 | 0.345 | 0.840 | 0-3 PICK |
How TRIBUNAL predicts
OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.