VANGUARD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
VANGUARD · Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
🎯 VANGUARD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using VANGUARD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
✓ 3-0
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 2
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 3
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 4
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 5
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 6
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 7
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by VANGUARD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.298 | 0.513 | 0.029 | 0.189 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.190 | 0.475 | 0.057 | 0.334 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.189 | 0.442 | 0.057 | 0.369 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.164 | 0.461 | 0.073 | 0.375 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.159 | 0.455 | 0.071 | 0.386 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.149 | 0.377 | 0.045 | 0.474 | — |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.127 | 0.401 | 0.097 | 0.472 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.126 | 0.479 | 0.079 | 0.395 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.121 | 0.443 | 0.043 | 0.436 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.116 | 0.431 | 0.089 | 0.453 | ADVANCE |
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.098 | 0.406 | 0.052 | 0.496 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.091 | 0.402 | 0.078 | 0.507 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.084 | 0.299 | 0.145 | 0.617 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.059 | 0.232 | 0.216 | 0.709 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.026 | 0.165 | 0.247 | 0.810 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.002 | 0.019 | 0.623 | 0.979 | 0-3 PICK |
How VANGUARD predicts
Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.