SOS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
SOS · Rank + form + opponent strength
🎯 SOS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SOS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ 2
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 3
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 4
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 5
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 6
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SOS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.178 | 0.458 | 0.081 | 0.365 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.174 | 0.420 | 0.078 | 0.407 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.155 | 0.406 | 0.096 | 0.439 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.152 | 0.411 | 0.101 | 0.436 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.146 | 0.415 | 0.111 | 0.439 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.143 | 0.391 | 0.103 | 0.466 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.140 | 0.425 | 0.103 | 0.435 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.134 | 0.404 | 0.108 | 0.462 | ADVANCE |
9z
#17
|
0.122 | 0.377 | 0.119 | 0.502 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.118 | 0.364 | 0.122 | 0.518 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.113 | 0.361 | 0.133 | 0.526 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.102 | 0.346 | 0.144 | 0.551 | — |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.100 | 0.348 | 0.151 | 0.553 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.081 | 0.301 | 0.169 | 0.618 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.078 | 0.282 | 0.183 | 0.640 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.065 | 0.293 | 0.200 | 0.642 | 0-3 PICK |
How SOS predicts
Rank + form + opponent strength
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.