WR10COMBO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
WR10C · Win rate top-10 + ELO + form
🎯 WR10COMBO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using WR10COMBO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
9z
3-2
HLTV #17
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 3
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 4
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 5
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 6
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 7
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by WR10COMBO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.546 | 0.411 | 0.005 | 0.042 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.211 | 0.479 | 0.047 | 0.310 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.198 | 0.493 | 0.049 | 0.309 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.177 | 0.526 | 0.056 | 0.297 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.140 | 0.453 | 0.079 | 0.407 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.126 | 0.428 | 0.088 | 0.446 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.101 | 0.510 | 0.064 | 0.389 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.097 | 0.358 | 0.103 | 0.545 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.096 | 0.383 | 0.090 | 0.521 | — |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.079 | 0.424 | 0.085 | 0.497 | ADVANCE |
Monte
#23
|
0.062 | 0.362 | 0.124 | 0.576 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.043 | 0.298 | 0.179 | 0.659 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.039 | 0.203 | 0.264 | 0.759 | — |
|
9z
#17
|
0.034 | 0.193 | 0.272 | 0.773 | 0-3 PICK |
G2
#12
|
0.030 | 0.290 | 0.226 | 0.681 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.024 | 0.187 | 0.270 | 0.789 | — |
How WR10COMBO predicts
Win rate top-10 + ELO + form
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10COMBO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10COMBO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10COMBO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10COMBO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.