SURGE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
SURGE · Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters
🎯 SURGE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SURGE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
FURIA
✓ 3-0
HLTV #2
💀 0-3
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 2
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 5
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 6
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 7
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SURGE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.299 | 0.510 | 0.006 | 0.191 | 3-0 PICK |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.287 | 0.504 | 0.004 | 0.209 | ADVANCE |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.222 | 0.522 | 0.020 | 0.257 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.219 | 0.497 | 0.019 | 0.285 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.186 | 0.487 | 0.016 | 0.328 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.166 | 0.507 | 0.025 | 0.327 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.155 | 0.496 | 0.030 | 0.349 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.118 | 0.546 | 0.020 | 0.337 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.109 | 0.377 | 0.031 | 0.513 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.092 | 0.478 | 0.039 | 0.430 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.072 | 0.435 | 0.049 | 0.493 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.049 | 0.390 | 0.069 | 0.562 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.021 | 0.184 | 0.189 | 0.795 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.003 | 0.028 | 0.467 | 0.970 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.002 | 0.026 | 0.485 | 0.972 | — |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.001 | 0.015 | 0.531 | 0.984 | 0-3 PICK |
How SURGE predicts
Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters
For the Pickem Challenge, SURGE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SURGE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SURGE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SURGE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.