WR10 — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
WR10 · Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
🎯 WR10's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using WR10's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ 2
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 3
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ 4
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
⚡ 5
BetBoom
✓ 3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ 6
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 7
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by WR10's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.160 | 0.442 | 0.089 | 0.398 | 3-0 PICK |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.144 | 0.395 | 0.107 | 0.461 | ADVANCE |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.135 | 0.377 | 0.115 | 0.488 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.133 | 0.377 | 0.117 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.131 | 0.378 | 0.122 | 0.490 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.131 | 0.375 | 0.119 | 0.494 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.130 | 0.383 | 0.117 | 0.487 | ADVANCE |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.127 | 0.370 | 0.122 | 0.503 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.126 | 0.363 | 0.129 | 0.511 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.122 | 0.370 | 0.130 | 0.508 | — |
|
G2
#12
|
0.119 | 0.396 | 0.124 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.113 | 0.373 | 0.131 | 0.514 | — |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.112 | 0.367 | 0.139 | 0.521 | — |
Falcons
#4
|
0.112 | 0.350 | 0.143 | 0.539 | — |
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.106 | 0.353 | 0.142 | 0.541 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.099 | 0.331 | 0.155 | 0.570 | 0-3 PICK |
How WR10 predicts
Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10 ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10 ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.