ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
ELO · Team ELO rating
🎯 ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 2
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 5
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 6
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 7
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.497 | 0.443 | 0.009 | 0.061 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.230 | 0.478 | 0.044 | 0.293 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.170 | 0.512 | 0.066 | 0.319 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.169 | 0.470 | 0.065 | 0.360 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.134 | 0.538 | 0.056 | 0.328 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.128 | 0.411 | 0.090 | 0.461 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.124 | 0.392 | 0.080 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.091 | 0.353 | 0.144 | 0.556 | — |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.089 | 0.414 | 0.081 | 0.497 | ADVANCE |
FURIA
#2
|
0.078 | 0.379 | 0.138 | 0.543 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.066 | 0.263 | 0.168 | 0.672 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.062 | 0.247 | 0.199 | 0.691 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.054 | 0.316 | 0.153 | 0.631 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.049 | 0.360 | 0.179 | 0.592 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.031 | 0.180 | 0.292 | 0.789 | 0-3 PICK |
B8
#20
|
0.030 | 0.246 | 0.236 | 0.724 | — |
How ELO predicts
Team ELO rating
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.