ORACLE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
ORACLE · ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
🎯 ORACLE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ORACLE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 2
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 3
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
⚡ 6
9z
✓ 3-2
HLTV #17
⚡ 7
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ORACLE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.184 | 0.443 | 0.072 | 0.373 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.180 | 0.430 | 0.081 | 0.391 | ADVANCE |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.166 | 0.415 | 0.097 | 0.419 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.159 | 0.430 | 0.098 | 0.411 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.130 | 0.402 | 0.113 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.129 | 0.397 | 0.115 | 0.474 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.118 | 0.385 | 0.128 | 0.497 | ADVANCE |
Monte
#23
|
0.111 | 0.361 | 0.134 | 0.528 | — |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.110 | 0.353 | 0.131 | 0.537 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.109 | 0.349 | 0.135 | 0.542 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.107 | 0.330 | 0.141 | 0.563 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.105 | 0.322 | 0.155 | 0.573 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.103 | 0.365 | 0.141 | 0.532 | — |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.100 | 0.366 | 0.140 | 0.534 | ADVANCE |
G2
#12
|
0.095 | 0.345 | 0.155 | 0.560 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.094 | 0.308 | 0.164 | 0.597 | 0-3 PICK |
How ORACLE predicts
ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.