OPEN — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
OPEN · Rank + form + head-to-head
🎯 OPEN's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using OPEN's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 2
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 6
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by OPEN's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.210 | 0.462 | 0.064 | 0.328 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.189 | 0.440 | 0.069 | 0.371 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.158 | 0.405 | 0.094 | 0.437 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.154 | 0.430 | 0.096 | 0.417 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.152 | 0.401 | 0.099 | 0.447 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.142 | 0.393 | 0.103 | 0.465 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.138 | 0.404 | 0.103 | 0.458 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.134 | 0.384 | 0.109 | 0.482 | — |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.122 | 0.400 | 0.115 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.112 | 0.375 | 0.133 | 0.514 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.105 | 0.379 | 0.134 | 0.516 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.095 | 0.348 | 0.135 | 0.558 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.081 | 0.311 | 0.177 | 0.608 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.071 | 0.293 | 0.183 | 0.636 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.071 | 0.287 | 0.185 | 0.642 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.067 | 0.290 | 0.202 | 0.643 | 0-3 PICK |
How OPEN predicts
Rank + form + head-to-head
For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.