SENTINEL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
SENTINEL · Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction
🎯 SENTINEL's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SENTINEL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
FURIA
✓ 3-0
HLTV #2
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 2
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 3
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ 4
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 5
B8
0-3
HLTV #20
⚡ 6
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 7
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SENTINEL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.192 | 0.450 | 0.067 | 0.358 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.183 | 0.465 | 0.068 | 0.353 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.180 | 0.408 | 0.057 | 0.412 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.175 | 0.430 | 0.077 | 0.394 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.152 | 0.449 | 0.061 | 0.399 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.145 | 0.418 | 0.091 | 0.437 | ADVANCE |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.136 | 0.389 | 0.111 | 0.476 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.131 | 0.380 | 0.104 | 0.489 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.129 | 0.424 | 0.094 | 0.447 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.128 | 0.438 | 0.096 | 0.434 | ADVANCE |
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.114 | 0.393 | 0.089 | 0.492 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.095 | 0.345 | 0.141 | 0.560 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.081 | 0.333 | 0.163 | 0.586 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.079 | 0.325 | 0.145 | 0.596 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.069 | 0.282 | 0.183 | 0.649 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.011 | 0.070 | 0.454 | 0.919 | 0-3 PICK |
How SENTINEL predicts
Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction
For the Pickem Challenge, SENTINEL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SENTINEL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SENTINEL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SENTINEL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.