TIERELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
TIER · ELO for top-30 teams
🎯 TIERELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIERELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 3
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 4
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 5
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 6
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 7
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIERELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.175 | 0.431 | 0.086 | 0.394 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.144 | 0.387 | 0.113 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.137 | 0.389 | 0.114 | 0.474 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.136 | 0.384 | 0.114 | 0.479 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.131 | 0.391 | 0.114 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.130 | 0.386 | 0.121 | 0.484 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.125 | 0.384 | 0.112 | 0.492 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.122 | 0.387 | 0.125 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.121 | 0.349 | 0.134 | 0.530 | — |
FURIA
#2
|
0.120 | 0.368 | 0.130 | 0.512 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.119 | 0.372 | 0.129 | 0.509 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.116 | 0.354 | 0.144 | 0.530 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.115 | 0.359 | 0.133 | 0.526 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.108 | 0.368 | 0.135 | 0.524 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.102 | 0.354 | 0.140 | 0.545 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.099 | 0.337 | 0.156 | 0.564 | 0-3 PICK |
How TIERELO predicts
ELO for top-30 teams
For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.