STRONGHOLD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
STRONGHOLD · ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
🎯 STRONGHOLD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using STRONGHOLD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Falcons
3-1
HLTV #4
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 2
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 3
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 4
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 5
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 6
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 7
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by STRONGHOLD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.259 | 0.481 | 0.034 | 0.260 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.233 | 0.510 | 0.041 | 0.258 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.214 | 0.425 | 0.036 | 0.362 | ADVANCE |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.186 | 0.499 | 0.050 | 0.315 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.173 | 0.514 | 0.034 | 0.313 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.145 | 0.467 | 0.084 | 0.388 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.143 | 0.418 | 0.076 | 0.438 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.141 | 0.416 | 0.091 | 0.444 | ADVANCE |
Spirit
#9
|
0.110 | 0.412 | 0.111 | 0.478 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.097 | 0.407 | 0.083 | 0.496 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.084 | 0.388 | 0.121 | 0.528 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.070 | 0.340 | 0.088 | 0.591 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.068 | 0.263 | 0.169 | 0.669 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.045 | 0.203 | 0.214 | 0.752 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.029 | 0.213 | 0.228 | 0.758 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.005 | 0.043 | 0.541 | 0.953 | 0-3 PICK |
How STRONGHOLD predicts
ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.