SQUAD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
SQUAD · Player ratings
🎯 SQUAD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SQUAD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 2
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 3
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 4
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 5
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 6
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 7
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SQUAD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.724 | 0.268 | 0.001 | 0.008 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.266 | 0.510 | 0.017 | 0.224 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.230 | 0.566 | 0.022 | 0.205 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.206 | 0.596 | 0.027 | 0.199 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.156 | 0.559 | 0.029 | 0.284 | ADVANCE |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.079 | 0.383 | 0.091 | 0.538 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.058 | 0.490 | 0.095 | 0.452 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.057 | 0.443 | 0.046 | 0.500 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.050 | 0.547 | 0.052 | 0.403 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.044 | 0.275 | 0.131 | 0.681 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.033 | 0.246 | 0.214 | 0.720 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.033 | 0.355 | 0.115 | 0.612 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.030 | 0.175 | 0.241 | 0.795 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.018 | 0.382 | 0.154 | 0.600 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.008 | 0.123 | 0.360 | 0.869 | — |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.008 | 0.083 | 0.405 | 0.909 | 0-3 PICK |
How SQUAD predicts
Player ratings
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.