MAJOR — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
MAJOR · Rank + H2H + Form for major events
🎯 MAJOR's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using MAJOR's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
G2
3-2
HLTV #12
💀 0-3
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ 2
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 3
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 4
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 5
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
⚡ 6
B8
0-3
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by MAJOR's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
G2
#12
|
0.160 | 0.440 | 0.091 | 0.400 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.147 | 0.389 | 0.109 | 0.464 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.142 | 0.404 | 0.102 | 0.455 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.131 | 0.384 | 0.122 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.131 | 0.384 | 0.126 | 0.486 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.130 | 0.382 | 0.123 | 0.488 | ADVANCE |
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.124 | 0.370 | 0.125 | 0.506 | — |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.124 | 0.387 | 0.127 | 0.490 | ADVANCE |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.122 | 0.357 | 0.127 | 0.521 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.121 | 0.358 | 0.129 | 0.521 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.120 | 0.367 | 0.128 | 0.513 | — |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.119 | 0.375 | 0.135 | 0.506 | ADVANCE |
Falcons
#4
|
0.115 | 0.358 | 0.132 | 0.527 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.111 | 0.361 | 0.135 | 0.528 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.105 | 0.346 | 0.143 | 0.549 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.099 | 0.339 | 0.147 | 0.563 | 0-3 PICK |
How MAJOR predicts
Rank + H2H + Form for major events
For the Pickem Challenge, MAJOR ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MAJOR's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, MAJOR ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MAJOR's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.