TIER2ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
TIER2 · Top-teams ELO v2
🎯 TIER2ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER2ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 2
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 6
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 7
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIER2ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.181 | 0.441 | 0.084 | 0.378 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.142 | 0.389 | 0.110 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.140 | 0.403 | 0.108 | 0.457 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.140 | 0.404 | 0.114 | 0.456 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.130 | 0.375 | 0.117 | 0.495 | ADVANCE |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.128 | 0.379 | 0.118 | 0.493 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.128 | 0.381 | 0.116 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.124 | 0.363 | 0.130 | 0.514 | — |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.123 | 0.389 | 0.120 | 0.488 | ADVANCE |
FURIA
#2
|
0.122 | 0.363 | 0.132 | 0.515 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.118 | 0.353 | 0.133 | 0.530 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.109 | 0.354 | 0.130 | 0.537 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.109 | 0.344 | 0.147 | 0.547 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.108 | 0.371 | 0.143 | 0.521 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.102 | 0.354 | 0.141 | 0.545 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.096 | 0.339 | 0.156 | 0.565 | 0-3 PICK |
How TIER2ELO predicts
Top-teams ELO v2
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.