NEXUS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
NEXUS · APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
🎯 NEXUS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using NEXUS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Falcons
3-1
HLTV #4
💀 0-3
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 3
9z
✓ 3-2
HLTV #17
⚡ 4
Vitality
✓ 3-1
HLTV #1
⚡ 5
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 6
Aurora
✓ 3-1
HLTV #7
⚡ 7
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by NEXUS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.224 | 0.482 | 0.052 | 0.294 | 3-0 PICK |
|
9z
#17
|
0.193 | 0.460 | 0.064 | 0.347 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.188 | 0.452 | 0.066 | 0.360 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.184 | 0.499 | 0.067 | 0.317 | ADVANCE |
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.179 | 0.457 | 0.070 | 0.365 | ADVANCE |
|
Aurora
#7
|
0.174 | 0.433 | 0.076 | 0.393 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.163 | 0.467 | 0.078 | 0.370 | ADVANCE |
FURIA
#2
|
0.124 | 0.380 | 0.112 | 0.496 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.105 | 0.358 | 0.127 | 0.537 | — |
|
G2
#12
|
0.104 | 0.387 | 0.126 | 0.509 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.075 | 0.323 | 0.160 | 0.602 | — |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.073 | 0.269 | 0.155 | 0.658 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.070 | 0.324 | 0.173 | 0.607 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.058 | 0.295 | 0.195 | 0.647 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.051 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.699 | — |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.036 | 0.165 | 0.258 | 0.799 | 0-3 PICK |
How NEXUS predicts
APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.