EAGLE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
EAGLE · Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate
🎯 EAGLE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using EAGLE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
💀 0-3
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
B8
0-3
HLTV #20
⚡ 3
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 4
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ 5
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
⚡ 6
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 7
9z
✓ 3-2
HLTV #17
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by EAGLE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.225 | 0.478 | 0.053 | 0.298 | 3-0 PICK |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.218 | 0.476 | 0.061 | 0.306 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.158 | 0.433 | 0.086 | 0.409 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.155 | 0.415 | 0.093 | 0.430 | ADVANCE |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.154 | 0.416 | 0.094 | 0.430 | ADVANCE |
Monte
#23
|
0.123 | 0.357 | 0.119 | 0.520 | — |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.119 | 0.387 | 0.116 | 0.494 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.119 | 0.357 | 0.118 | 0.525 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.118 | 0.361 | 0.131 | 0.521 | — |
|
9z
#17
|
0.113 | 0.373 | 0.125 | 0.513 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.106 | 0.379 | 0.142 | 0.515 | ADVANCE |
Falcons
#4
|
0.097 | 0.372 | 0.133 | 0.531 | — |
Vitality
#1
|
0.092 | 0.345 | 0.149 | 0.564 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.076 | 0.316 | 0.185 | 0.609 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.065 | 0.276 | 0.196 | 0.659 | — |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.064 | 0.260 | 0.199 | 0.676 | 0-3 PICK |
How EAGLE predicts
Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate
For the Pickem Challenge, EAGLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by EAGLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, EAGLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by EAGLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.