STREAK — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
STREAK · Rank + H2H + win/loss streak
🎯 STREAK's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using STREAK's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 2
G2
✓ 3-2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
9z
✓ 3-2
HLTV #17
⚡ 4
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 5
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 6
Monte
1-3
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
Legacy
1-3
HLTV #14
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by STREAK's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.199 | 0.471 | 0.071 | 0.331 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.148 | 0.405 | 0.108 | 0.448 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.140 | 0.395 | 0.110 | 0.465 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.128 | 0.367 | 0.113 | 0.505 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.127 | 0.365 | 0.120 | 0.508 | — |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.126 | 0.375 | 0.124 | 0.498 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.125 | 0.378 | 0.117 | 0.497 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.123 | 0.370 | 0.130 | 0.507 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.120 | 0.402 | 0.121 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.120 | 0.357 | 0.126 | 0.523 | — |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.116 | 0.376 | 0.135 | 0.508 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.111 | 0.350 | 0.148 | 0.539 | — |
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.109 | 0.350 | 0.141 | 0.541 | — |
MOUZ
#6
|
0.109 | 0.356 | 0.138 | 0.535 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.106 | 0.356 | 0.144 | 0.538 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.093 | 0.327 | 0.154 | 0.579 | 0-3 PICK |
How STREAK predicts
Rank + H2H + win/loss streak
For the Pickem Challenge, STREAK ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STREAK's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, STREAK ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STREAK's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.